December 2023
Kam Zarrabi

The weather report says there is a 37% chance of rain for our area today. But, what does that mean exactly? Does it mean that, statistically speaking, similar temperature and humidity conditions indicate that in 37 out of 100 cases the entire area has experienced rain? Or does it mean that rain has covered only 37% of the area but not the entire area? And, what size area does this percentage prediction cover? So, should we take our umbrella with us, just in case? Wouldn't it be better to simply say there is some chance of rain in our area today?

The toothpaste ad on television claims, for example, that it cleans your teeth better by 83.5%! How the hell did they come up with that precise number? How many people did they sample; how long and how hard did the sample group brush their teeth; what kind of brushes they used: and did they all follow the rules exactly the same in order to render such a seemingly accurate number; and, finally, what do they mean by "clean?"

In the 1950s when I lived in Southern California, I remember visiting the famous San Diego Zoo. I noticed the sign at the Mountain Leopard area indicating that these animals live above 9,843ft elevation. I am guessing here as I don't recall what that exact figure was; however, it was a surprisingly precise number. It was obvious that some mathematical genius had converted the habitat range of that animal, which had been "estimated" in international metric figures to be above 3,000 meters, by converting that number to feet, i.e., multiplying it by 3.2808! So, that poor leopard must have had to carry with it an accurate altimeter to make sure it stayed above that exact elevation of 9,843 feet! A better description of the leopard's habitat would have simply said that it lived above the timberline or around 10,000 ft.

The instruction on some foods that must be prepared on stove top suggests boiling it for a certain number of minutes; for instance for making soft or hard-boiled eggs or some stews. Water boils at 212 degrees Fahrenheit at sea level. At over 6,000 feet above sea level, where we live here in Silver City, the boiling temperature is 10-15 degrees lower; and increasing the flame under the pot simply increases the rate of making steam and doesn't raise the water temperature by any significant margin. So, cooking at lower temperatures requires a bit longer cooking time. At La Paz, Bolivia, as an example, water boils at around 185 degrees (I say around or approximately because atmospheric pressure does affect these figures to some extent, as well).

In most cases in prescribed or over-the-counter medications, the dosages do not take into account the size or the weight of the individual. That implies that taking certain milligrams of the medication per day, for instance, has the same effect on a 90 pound individual as it does for someone weighing three times as much! What about drinking the suggested minimum of three liters of water daily for better health? Is that truly a figure to go by, regardless of your weight, the temperature, or your level of activity?

In any college course in physics or chemistry they do teach you that the decimal points in any figure indicate the level of precision in measurements. If, for instance, you cut something that measures 3.77 meters long, in other words, 3 meters and 77 millimeters, in two equal pieces, each piece is 3.77 divided by 2, or 1.885 meters long. However, it would be wrong if you claim your degree of accuracy to be at the level of a tenth of a millimeter or to the third decimal point.

Watching a cooking show on TV, the master chef grabs a "pinch" of cinnamon and a "little" salt and "some" pepper or a "hint" of vanilla to mix with whatever he is preparing. The exact amounts of each measure is seldom mentioned; you only see the chef's fingers dipping into the jars to grab that "pinch" or "little" amount; it's all eyeballed or approximations, which is the way it should be in real life.

Then you see your wife following a written recipe to prepare a fairly simple casserole. Over a dozen measuring tools, from ½ teaspoon all the way up to a half gallon, plus a food scale, thermometers and timers, are scattered all over the kitchen counter. After a lot of precision cutting and measuring, the thing goes inside the oven. And it comes out after the prescribed temperature and time settings. But after a little tasting she senses that something is not just right: it seems to be lacking something! Yes, I agree; perhaps a "little" more salt, another "pinch" of pepper and few more minutes in the oven might help. She agrees, and says perhaps a slightly higher oven temperature would have helped, too.

We like to grind our coffee beans rather than use pre-ground sort for our morning cup. We do believe there is a discernible difference in the coffee flavor and taste between the fresh-ground and pre-ground coffees. Our $15 electric grinder has been working for over twenty years and shows no sign of fatigue. For a coarser grind we run it for a few seconds, and increase the time up to 10 seconds or a bit more for real fine grind, depending on what kind of brew we desire. There are grinders that cost upwards of $900, equipped with a wide range of grinding sizes: wow! That is supposed to tell me that simply estimating the grinding level as we have been doing all along does not give us the flavor and taste of the coffee that the grinders costing a thousand or two would give us! I am sure there are connoisseurs of coffee who believe that is the case, or companies like Ottimo would not be making their $900 home grinders for snobs like that!

Of course, there are conditions where a precision fine measurement is absolutely necessary to obtain the desired results. But for our everyday routines a reasonable approximation is plenty good. You won't be kicked out of your doctor's office if you are five minutes late for your assigned appointment!